The Grand Scheme Holds Its Breath To Keep It Short

(breath held) I said a few weeks ago that I would not involve myself with the constant—and frequently baseless—rumor mongering about Curtis Granderson. I won’t. It is exhausting. But I can’t really ignore when things like this explode on the internet late at night:

Yanks, Tigers, D’Backs Discussing Blockbuster
The deal would send Curtis Granderson to the Yanks, along with a prospect or two from the D'Backs. Arizona would obtain Edwin Jackson from the Tigers and Ian Kennedy from the Yankees. The Tigers would obtain Max Scherzer from the D'Backs and Austin Jackson, Phil Coke and Michael Dunn from the Yanks.

Saints be praised that this line was included at the end:

Talks are apparently at an "impasse" now, though the D'Backs continue to push for a trade.

Oh, and as of 8:29 it “looks very unlikely”

I’d like to recommend following MLB Trade Rumors for this today—as they have reporting that this is still a possibility as of this morning. For my part, I will save myself the pain of analyzing any proposed trade until a trade actually happens.

You can also “watch” the Winter Meetings live on ESPN.com which is pretty damn cool.

(still holding) For a Tiger-centric view on things, I recommend checking out the Detroit Tigers Weblog for up to date items.

(still holding) My all time favorite journalist writes an article with a pathetically obvious title, but a nice summary of the day’s events. He then goes on to spoil that goodwill by suggesting this in his blog:

If the Tigers trade Granderson, here’s a thought on center field…

Scott Podsednik.

Please stop. Please. Stop.

(STILL HOLDING) Jon Heyman at SI.com says that the Yankees were “spending the day” trying to get Granderson, which absolutely terrifies me. Why? They are they Yankees, and they often get what they want. However, Joel Sherman of the NY Post—the man who has been pushing the Granderson to NY news for some time—tweeted that they Tigers weren’t really happy with the “Blockbuster” talks (H/T MLB Trade Rumors)

(……) Can I just say right now that this week has proved to me, beyond a shadow of a doubt, the one and only useful purpose for twitter. No mundane details or useless crap, just FAST new bits of trade rumors. Twitter as a news feed/rumor mill is outstanding. You can flesh it out later in a blog or article, but this just lets you get the information out there.

*EXHALE* Maybe it is an isolated case, but it seems that someone with an actual media credential has the sense to say what many of us Tigers fans have been thinking all along. Jason Stark sums up Day 1 of the Winter Meetings (with Jerry Crasnik) and makes some good points:


For those of you not inclined to watch, here’s Stark’s take on the Granderson talks:

“Seems to me that the Tigers placed the bar on him so high that they don’t really want to trade him. If somebody wants to leap over that bar and really over pay then they would, but if not then I think they keep him”

Hallelujah! Bingo! Spot On! THANK YOU.

No fire sales. No “desparate to trade” talks. No throwing spaghetti at the wall to see what sticks. Stark says what we’ve all been thinking: the Tigers want to keep Granderson and have taken a Godfather approach to any talks. If someone is willing to overpay then they’ll deal. As much as it would pain me to lose Granderson, at least that is sensible baseball thinking.
The problem is, nobody else in the media has said that and we’ve all had to suffer preposterous stories that, if not stopped would have devolved down to the Tigers being so desperate to Trade Granderson that they will unload him for Milton Bradley and a bag of balls.

Fingers Crossed Yeah, I’m hoping that the Tigers don’t trade Granderson. Even more to the point, tomorrow I will be on an airplane for 10 hours and will be woefully unable to receive any news about trades etc. This could make for an anxious plane ride if something is imminent before I board tomorrow morning. It could also make for a therapeutic session in which I can think about a trade in-depth as I sip Ginger Ale and snack on peanuts if something goes down tonight. I guess we'll see...

Breaking The Crystal Ball

Now things start coming together. For months I have wondered what Lynn Henning has had in mind when constantly preaching that the Tigers must trade Granderson. Today, we are invited into the heart of darkness.

Here's a tentative look at what could be the Tigers' starting lineup on Opening Day 2011:

1. Shortstop (to be determined, acquired via trade)
2. Scott Sizemore, second base
3. Casper Wells, center field
4. Miguel Cabrera, first base
5. Carlos Guillen, designated hitter
6. Alex Avila, catcher
7. Ryan Strieby, left field
8. Brennan Boesch, right field
9. Third base (to be determined, acquired via trade)

This assumes several things: Inge will be gone. Ryan Raburn will either have been traded or will be a starter ahead of one of the three young outfielders. Magglio Ordonez's option for 2011 will not have kicked in. And trades will have provided the missing pieces at shortstop and third base.

Those voids will have been filled, if the 2009 calculations are correct, by a couple of upcoming trades for a couple of players named Granderson and Jackson.

God help us all.

Explain to me for just a second, how that is any different from this? Seriously. Is this is a team that wins in 2011? I really don't think so. This is a team that, if you're lucky, is built for more like 2013 when those players start to come into their own and not 2011 when they are all rookies and second year players. So if this is what you're relying on for a team roster in 2011, as opposed to, you know, one that includes Granderson and an extra $40M in payroll to spend on some well-placed free agents, or high quality players acquired via trade, then I've got some prime swampland real estate that I'm looking to sell.

Let's play a game.

Of the Top 10 Prospects in the Tigers system going into 2007, One (Jair Jurrjens) is in the Major Leagues.

Of the Tigers' Top 10 Prospects going into 2008, One (Rick Porcello) is in the Major Leagues.

Of the Tigers' Top 10 Prospects going into 2009, Two (Porcello and Ryan Perry) are in the Major Leagues.

You're telling me that somehow, the Tigers are going to pull four players from their Minor League System, two prospects from another minor league system and Alex Avila--who was mostly a minor leaguer in 2009--and have SEVEN starting major league players?!?! That is insanity. Keep in mind, that the Tigers have had exactly ZERO position players come through their system and into the regular starting lineup of ANY MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM since Curtis Granderson broke through in 2006. The Tigers system has no phenoms, and no reason to believe that they can assemble a major league team through "The Henning Plan"

And therein lies the problem. When you have players like Granderson and Miguel Cabrera--position players that have proven themselves in the Major Leagues, it just doesn't make sense to deal them and rely on your position player prospects. Sure, Granderson is 29, but that isn't old. That means he has 3-4 years before he starts to decline. I'm not saying that Granderson can't be replaced, but rather that there is no replacement for him. If you're lucky enough to develop one or two major league position players from your current crop of minor leaguers, the team has plenty of holes that they could fill.

I'll say it once more: I don't dispute that there may be scenario in which trading Curtis Granderson may make sense. I just don't know what it is. Lynn Henning has preached and preached that it is the cure to what ails the Tigers. Today, he proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has absolutely no idea what he is talking about.

The Grand Scheme Toes The Ledge

In this edition we convince ourselves that things are going to be ok in Tigertown. But first…

Ernie
Ernie Harwell recently spoke with Bob Costas in an interview that will be aired on the MLB Network on Tuesday at 8pm. I do not have the MLB Network, but I’m hoping that a version will crop up online shortly thereafter. This will likey be Ernie’s last interview. The beauty of all of this is that through the magic of audio recording his voice—which has remained unchanged for decades—will live on forever.

Onto the meat and potatoes…

What’s The Opposite of a Fire Sale?
I don’t know. But that is what this is, because this definitely isn’t a fire sale according to Dave Dombrowski (via Beck’s Blog):

"We're not having a fire sale," he said by phone Wednesday.”

Wonderful!

Read My Lips
The insightful Old English D says not so fast my friend:

Do Dave Dombrowski's words "This is not a fire sale" sound too much like "No new taxes" and "I did not have sex with that woman"? Words that are famously proven wrong at a later date, and never did ring true? Words spoken to pacify for a fleeting moment before the ugly reality is plastered all over, and the angry mob comes with fiery torches reflected in their eyes to....Ooops, sorry about that, I may have gotten a wee bit carried away there.

No, that sounds about right. If Michigan is looking for a new industry to revitalize the economy, I’d put my shekels in Torch & Pitchfork manufacturing and distribution. With Michigan football, we’re looking at year-round revenue opportunities, people.

On The Nose
My brother sent me this text message last night:

“I’d much rather see the Tigers struggle for a year with an inexperienced bullpen and rookie infielders than trade Granderson.”

Seconded. Here’s the thing: The Tigers are not in a good situation right now—they have holes to fill in the bullpen, SS and 2B. But I’m struggling—I mean really, really struggling—to find a situation in which the Tigers trade Curtis Granderson AND are competitive in 2010. If that’s what you need to do to plug holes in the roster, then I’m afraid that you’ve just opened up a much larger and more damaging hole in the process.

Hold Your Horses
Says Kurt at Mack Avenue Tigers:

So now, I think history is repeating itself. The Tigers still have too high a payroll. The economy is still bad. And the Tigers' general manager is shopping a few of his players around.

Financial problems in Detroit! Firesale, straight ahead!

Or not.

So, as I was saying, what does it mean?

Despite the myth of owner Mike Ilitch's deep pockets, I think it's a sign the Tigers really won't be able to do much of anything on the free agent market due to financial constraints. They will improve themselves on the trade market if that is at all possible. But I don't believe Dombrowski feels pressured to trade any players if he can't improve his team's chances in 2010 and beyond.

I agree completely. I can’t tell you how many times I read or was told that the Tigers would have a firesale in 2009 as soon as they started to struggle. After all, Michigan is an economic black hole. Which is true, kind of, but the National Media has an odd obsession in Detroit right now. My ever-insightful wife believes that this is the rest of the country’s way to feel better about its own economic struggles. “At least we’re not Detroit” has been the recurring theme. Detroit is a scapegoat in a pseudo-traditional sense of the word. The rest of the world has cast all of its troubles and problems on Detroit and has sent it off into the wilderness to die, while alleviating themselves of the weight of their own burdens.

The problem is, this isn’t entirely the case.

The Tigers actually held up pretty well last year, and while I’m sure they would like to shed some payroll, they really aren’t in a situation that warrants a fire-sale. The prudent move would be to do what it takes to make the team competitive while minimizing the additional payroll burden.

Ditto
Billfer at The Detroit Tigers Weblog says the same thing.

When the Jackson rumor hit we went through a number of factors and possible scenarios. With Granderson and Inge added to the list it clears up a lot of the possibilities but I don’t think it points to payroll slashing. What I do think it confirms – and this isn’t a surprise – is that the team likely has limited flexibility with their payroll.

What we’re seeing now is every player on the roster with potential value being floated. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Miguel Cabrera’s name or Justin Verlander’s names pop up in the coming weeks. The Tigers have holes to fill and limited means to fill them. They also have a number of contracts coming off the books after 2010. If the Tigers trade a player or two to fill a couple holes and get younger or cheaper at the same time, it’s a win – especially going into a season where playoff aspirations are likely limited.

The Tigers have basically said that nobody is untouchable (remember, removing the untouchable tag from Cameron Maybin is how they netted Miguel Cabrera in the first place), which is an acceptable thing to do. Dombrowski is trying to put together a team that can win a championship in the next few years. He is being a responsible GM by saying that he will do whatever it takes to make that happen. He also happens to not be an idiot. He knows Granderson’s value to the team (full value: both on and off the field) and isn’t going to just give him away. He’s not even trying to trade him. He’s just leaving his options open. The frustrating part about all of this is that it has been perceived as desperate maneuvering and “fire sale” tactics instead of responsible management.

The trick is that Dombrowski needs to prove that it is responsible management by not hurting the team and devastating the fan base at the same time. It sure would have been nice if this had all stayed behind closed doors.

Bottom Line
Don’t panic. Look yourself in the mirror and tell yourself not to panic. Maybe write down a little note that says "don't panic" and place it where you can look at it every time you read another article that gives you reason to panic. Craft elaborate scenarios that somehow dispel all notions that Granderson could end up a Yankee. Punish yourself for reintroducing the thought into your mind that Granderson could end up a Yankee. Look up the stats of Juan Encarnacion (2000), Roger Cedeno (2001), Wendell Magee (2002), Alex Sanchez (2003-2004) and Nook Logan (2004-2005) and remind yourself how crucial Curtis Granderson has been to the success of the team since he started roaming Center Field of Comerica Park in 2006. Cross your fingers that Dave Dombrowski has done the same. Don’t panic.

"Are they hurting so bad they would trade one of the best guys in the game? "

Such was the quote from Phil Rogers on Chicago Breaking Sports News

Here's where things don't add up for me.

In 2009 the Tigers:

• had the 4th highest attendance in the American League


• Turned down sponsorship of the fountain in Center Field to place a "Supports Our Automakers" sign instead


• Allowed Magglio Ordonez's $18 Million option to vest


• Had the 4th highest TV ratings among MLB clubs


• Saw a 10% raise in TV ratings in 2009

This all comes amidst the worst economic recession in decades, with all indications that everything is now turning up--even in Michigan.

To repeat Rogers' question: Are they hurting so bad that they would trade one of the best guys in the game?

I hope not.

Trade Rumor: Curtis Granderson Is Available

via MLB Trade Rumors:

The Tigers are letting teams know center fielder Curtis Granderson is available, according to an NL executive who talked to the New York Post's Joel Sherman. Sherman believes the Yankees would have interest.

Sherman qualifies the rumor, saying Granderson nor Edwin Jackson are players the Tigers truly want to trade. [emphasis mine]

Hmm...I'm not happy about this, but I'm not surprised given all of the Edwin Jackson talk that has been going around. That being said, the Tigers are not trying to trade these players, they are saying that the players are not untouchable. Jackson and Granderson are super-appealing trade chips in that they are 1. very good and 2. very cheap (relative to their market value). I can think of 29 major league baseball clubs who would jump at the chance to sign either of them.

For this reason, they are not players that the Tigers are going to give away. They don't need to move these players as part of a salary dump--they would be a relative drop in the bucket--and they aren't going to mortgage their future for one season of a slightly smaller but still very large payroll. If either of these players get traded, it will be in a package with somebody with a bigger salary and a pending replacement-in-waiting (I'm looking at you Carlos Guillen/Magglio Ordonez, or one of the Willis/Robertson/Bonderman trifecta). With MLB Trade Rumors throwing the Cubs out there as a possibility, it makes me wonder whether a Granderson+Big Salary Player swap could bring Milton Bradley and prospects to Detroit. That would alleviate the budget woes and do some system restocking, but I'm guessing that a better deal could be had elsewhere.

That being said, it would be a crushing blow if the Tigers traded Granderson for two reasons:

1. Lynn Henning would have been right, despite pulling this out of his backside months ago.
2. Curtis Granderson provides more value to the team on and off the field than any other player in Detroit. He is a beloved player that brings advertising and merchandise dollars to the team, is a community staple, nationally respected in the MLB and has the on-field skill that made him the second most valuable position player on the team in terms of wins added. I don't see how trading Granderson is anything but a huge step backward in 2010, and I'm not sure how they would recover in 2011 with no heir apparent in Centerfield.

Too hot in the hot stove. I don't like this at all.

The Grand Scheme Deserves A Gold Glove

And The Winner Is...
MLB announced the American League Gold Glove winners yesterday, reminding all of us how truly peculiar it is. I'm curious, who exactly votes for Gold Glove winners? Is it writers? players/coaches? Some sort of independent panel? It doesn't really matter, as the whole award is widely considered a popularity contest and legacy award. If you don't believe me, ask Rob Neyer.

In all of this, Placido Polanco walked away with his 2nd Gold Glove (2007), which is great considering that he is an excellent fielder--definitely a top 3 kind of guy, but was probably not THE best 2nd baseman this year. Similarly, Curtis Granderson, who was one of the best 3 outfielders in 2007 and/or 2008 went home empty handed, but that's ok because he lost out to newcomer...Adam Jones? Listen, I like Adam Jones a lot, and think that he will go on to have an excellent career and has all the tools to develop into a bona fide defensive whiz. But he is not even close to there yet, highlight catches not withstanding. Franklin Gutierrez got screwed.

Behind the dish, Gerald Laird did this:

Laird, who started a career-high 123 games after the Tigers traded for him last winter, led AL catchers in a landslide by throwing out 42 percent (42-of-101) of runners who tried to steal on him. He also put up a .997 fielding percentage by committing three errors in 925 total chances, also tops in the league, and posting a league-high 78 assists. Only Chicago's A.J. Pierzynski turned more double plays (eight) than Laird (seven).

Further Tiger-centric analysis here, here and here

[Ed.-there was a Eddie Murphy as James Brown video here that I couldn't figure out how to not autoplay, so I deleted it. You're welcome.]

According to a 1-2 punch of Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal at FoxSports, Edwin Jackson is on the trading block. That's a lot of hot stove heat for only being a week removed from the World Series. Again, your Tiger Blog Trio does a killer job of analysis on this.

My 2 cents, having read through the article: The Tigers aren't trying to trade Jackson, but are letting people know that he is not necessarily off limits. As an All-Star, coming off the best season of his career, there is reason to believe that he can be an excellent major league starter, despite his late-season fade. That being said, the Tigers aren't just going to take what they can get for him--he is a cheap, high quality option with long-term benefit to the team, and they would need some cheaper, younger options in return.

This move does not work as a payroll dump, but it would work if they tried to package Jackson in with a high-salary player a la the Josh Beckett + Mike Lowell trade (or Miguel Cabrera + Dontrelle Willis, for that matter). Jackson is a good pitcher priced below market value through 2011--enough so that another team may be willing to take on a larger for one year to get him. I like Jackson, and I'd like to see him stay in Detroit--aka I don't want him to feel like the team is trying to get rid of him. However, I'm ok listening to what other teams might be willing to offer in trade.

About Those Checklist Galleries
You've seen them around, no? This was that big thing that I alluded to a few days ago. I have been working all year at keeping a checklist of Detroit Tigers in every baseball card release. The ultimate goal was to make a comprehensive Tiger card database that is a little easier to follow and use as a checklist than some of the other things that are out there. To supplement this, I've started to make these galleries, to do what I really wanted to all along--get a visual checklist of these sets. Both the checklists and the checklist galleries will be updated from here to infinity and will move retroactively when I have enough time to do so.

As for the galleries themselves: they will all follow the same basic format. Base set, Inserts, Relics, Autographs, various special cards etc. Parallels are not included. Parallels are the bane of my existence. I may make a separate gallery for parallel sets that I collect (e.g. Topps Gold, A&G Minis etc.), but they are not at the core of what I'm doing. If you want to see what all the parallels are, just look at the master checklist--they're all there.

Hits In Blogville
Not a bad week for fellow bloggers.

First Dan at Saints of the Cheap Seats Pulls This:

Then The Priceless Pursuit walks away with this:

Heck, even frequent high-end box buster Gellman at Sports Cards Uncensored had The Box Break Of [His] Life.

Misc. Topps loses its football license, which doesn't really impact me, but boo. Do all of these exclusivity agreements remind anyone else of Addyston Pipe & Steel v. United States (1898)? Just me? It smells like fishy backroom dealings to me is all. I Am Joe Collector is doing exclusive card promotions with Blowout. The first one is this afternoon. Need a fix? You can always grab cards on the go at Wawa.