Day 0.

It's been a long hard winter for all of us. But Lo! Spring. Oh thank god, spring. A friend of mine called today "Christmas Eve," and I could only nod in agreement. It's enough to make me want to break out into song.



Indeed.

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This blog has been pretty quiet for a while, and for that I'm sorry. I've been busy, then in a funk, then busy again etc. For days I've asked myself, "what am I going to write about the Tigers this year?" Last year it was a season preview in which I predicted some things that proved to be pretty much true and also that Gerald Laird would hit .275 so, yeah. The year before it was THE YEAR, as painstakingly detailed in a multi-part series about how 2009 would be the year that nobody expected the Tigers--2008 cellar dwellers--to do anything at all. What did we get for that? 163 game crushing disappointment. Close but no cigar.

The problem is, I don't know what to think this year.

I don't feel like last year, when the team was both too young and too old, or the year before, where they really felt poised to take the division by storm. I don't know what this is. I don't know who the Tigers are.

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Individually you can see the potential.

Justin Verlander is going to win a Cy Young in his career, and I think he does it this year. You can write that down. Tell your friends.

Miguel Cabrera, sober edition, is an MVP.

Max Scherzer had a breakout 2nd half that could carry into this year

Austin Jackson, your should-have-been 2010 ROY, is back with a year of experience under his belt.

But geez, when I start reading things like "BEST ROTATION IN BASEBALL" by the person that you would absolutely expect to write something stupid like that, you just want to scream PHILLIES! in his face or hell, WHITE SOX! or a handful of others. But the problem is, we don't know.

That's why you get back-to-back columns in the Detroit News--Five reason the Tigers will be a hit and Five reasons the Tigers will be a flop.

We don't know.

We don't know if Phil Coke will be an effective starter all season, or if Brad Penny will be healthy.

We don't know if Rick Porcello will be better than he was last year.

We don't know if Alex Avila will be a good catcher.

Or if Will Rhymes will be a good second baseman.

Or if Ryan Raburn is ready to play a full season in the show.

Or if Brennan Boesch can take his place if he's not.

Or if Casper Wells can take his place if he's not.

We don't know if Maggs is healthy after breaking his ankle last year, or if he can stay healthy.

We don't know if Joel Zumaya or Carlos Guillen will ever return.

When you start counting up the question marks things become disconcerting. I don't like disconcerting--it plays games with my defense mechanisms. I want to prepare myself for disappointment, or temper my enthusiasm, but now I'm left here bare, naked to the whims of a round bat hitting a round ball. I don't know that I can take it.

It is Day 0 and the wait is over. Tomorrow will be Christmas Morning, and I have no idea of what I'm getting.


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This is the part of the season preview where predictions are made. Except, as my earlier ramblings may have indicated, I have no idea what is going to happen this season.

But this is the internet, dammit.

PREDICTIONS

YEAH. Serious predictions.

• Justin Verlander wins the Cy Young
• 40% of the Tigers starting rotation will be removed for non-injury reasons at some point.
• Austin Jackson has pretty much the same year as last year, is viewed as a massive disappointment
• The Tigers win 85 games, 2nd in Central to White Sox (91)
• Jim Leyland's contract is extended for two more seasons
• Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen and Joel Zumaya play their final seasons

Tommorow is a new day, folks. Welcome to the next six months of your lives and to a rejuvenated blogger.

Go Tigers.

Best Trade of All Time?

I am so far beyond my days of Lynn Henning bashing, but I feel like it's appropriate to provide some factual counterpoints to some of the things he says. Today, he writes:

[Austin Jackson] is one-quarter of perhaps the best trade in Tigers history. Dave Dombrowski will never make a deal that will have netted more talent — Jackson, Max Scherzer, Phil Coke and Daniel Schlereth — at such an affordable price (Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson).

I was the first to admit that the trade has worked out even better than expected. Personally, I still feel as though Granderson is one of the better all-around center fielders in the game, and that he will continue to prove that this year for the Yankees. But, Austin Jackson is incredible and will hopefully be a franchise player for the team. Also, Max Scherzer has been everything we hoped Max Scherzer would be and is going to be a star.

But. But! I don't even think that it was the best trade of the decade. Once upon a time the Tigers traded for Miguel Cabrera. At the time, it seemed like they paid a steep price. In reality, they gave up nothing. The Tigers gave up no impact players, save a still-young Cameron Maybin who could potentially resurrect his career. In return the Tigers got Cabrera, someone who, if he can get his extracurriculars under control, could legitimately go down as one of the best players in Franchise History. Sure they got Willis too, but that was no big deal--it was resigning him that was the problem.

But that's not it. The Tigers also acquired Carlos Guillen for Ramon Santiago and someone else (Juan M. Gonzalez, maybe?), and then got Ramon Santiago back! Certainly, that was a better trade at a cheaper price.

And it gets better. In what I believe may actually have been the best trade in Tigers history the Tigers traded Ugueth Urbina for Placido Polanco. Polanco went on to be one of the most consistent Tigers players around, won two Gold Gloves, nearly won a batting title and went to an All-Star game in his 4.5 years in Detroit. Urbina killed someone and never played another game.

So no, I'm not going to go on an anti-Henning warpath anymore. But dude. This is a man who loves his hyperbole and loves talking about the players that he has these pet-affections for (I'm looking at you Scott Sizemore and Casper Wells in their) and those that he loves to disparage for some reason (Granderson). To say that giving up Edwin Jackson and Curtis Granderson represents some sort of low-low price is ridiculous. These guys are former (and could be future) All-Stars and start on Major League rosters. The Tigers have made better deals than that. Not just ever, but recently.

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Also, can someone please get Norm Cash on the phone? Or Rocky Colavito? Or MICKEY COCHRANE? Best trade in Tigers history...Humph.

Breaking The Crystal Ball

Now things start coming together. For months I have wondered what Lynn Henning has had in mind when constantly preaching that the Tigers must trade Granderson. Today, we are invited into the heart of darkness.

Here's a tentative look at what could be the Tigers' starting lineup on Opening Day 2011:

1. Shortstop (to be determined, acquired via trade)
2. Scott Sizemore, second base
3. Casper Wells, center field
4. Miguel Cabrera, first base
5. Carlos Guillen, designated hitter
6. Alex Avila, catcher
7. Ryan Strieby, left field
8. Brennan Boesch, right field
9. Third base (to be determined, acquired via trade)

This assumes several things: Inge will be gone. Ryan Raburn will either have been traded or will be a starter ahead of one of the three young outfielders. Magglio Ordonez's option for 2011 will not have kicked in. And trades will have provided the missing pieces at shortstop and third base.

Those voids will have been filled, if the 2009 calculations are correct, by a couple of upcoming trades for a couple of players named Granderson and Jackson.

God help us all.

Explain to me for just a second, how that is any different from this? Seriously. Is this is a team that wins in 2011? I really don't think so. This is a team that, if you're lucky, is built for more like 2013 when those players start to come into their own and not 2011 when they are all rookies and second year players. So if this is what you're relying on for a team roster in 2011, as opposed to, you know, one that includes Granderson and an extra $40M in payroll to spend on some well-placed free agents, or high quality players acquired via trade, then I've got some prime swampland real estate that I'm looking to sell.

Let's play a game.

Of the Top 10 Prospects in the Tigers system going into 2007, One (Jair Jurrjens) is in the Major Leagues.

Of the Tigers' Top 10 Prospects going into 2008, One (Rick Porcello) is in the Major Leagues.

Of the Tigers' Top 10 Prospects going into 2009, Two (Porcello and Ryan Perry) are in the Major Leagues.

You're telling me that somehow, the Tigers are going to pull four players from their Minor League System, two prospects from another minor league system and Alex Avila--who was mostly a minor leaguer in 2009--and have SEVEN starting major league players?!?! That is insanity. Keep in mind, that the Tigers have had exactly ZERO position players come through their system and into the regular starting lineup of ANY MAJOR LEAGUE TEAM since Curtis Granderson broke through in 2006. The Tigers system has no phenoms, and no reason to believe that they can assemble a major league team through "The Henning Plan"

And therein lies the problem. When you have players like Granderson and Miguel Cabrera--position players that have proven themselves in the Major Leagues, it just doesn't make sense to deal them and rely on your position player prospects. Sure, Granderson is 29, but that isn't old. That means he has 3-4 years before he starts to decline. I'm not saying that Granderson can't be replaced, but rather that there is no replacement for him. If you're lucky enough to develop one or two major league position players from your current crop of minor leaguers, the team has plenty of holes that they could fill.

I'll say it once more: I don't dispute that there may be scenario in which trading Curtis Granderson may make sense. I just don't know what it is. Lynn Henning has preached and preached that it is the cure to what ails the Tigers. Today, he proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he has absolutely no idea what he is talking about.

Trade Rumor: Curtis Granderson Is Available

via MLB Trade Rumors:

The Tigers are letting teams know center fielder Curtis Granderson is available, according to an NL executive who talked to the New York Post's Joel Sherman. Sherman believes the Yankees would have interest.

Sherman qualifies the rumor, saying Granderson nor Edwin Jackson are players the Tigers truly want to trade. [emphasis mine]

Hmm...I'm not happy about this, but I'm not surprised given all of the Edwin Jackson talk that has been going around. That being said, the Tigers are not trying to trade these players, they are saying that the players are not untouchable. Jackson and Granderson are super-appealing trade chips in that they are 1. very good and 2. very cheap (relative to their market value). I can think of 29 major league baseball clubs who would jump at the chance to sign either of them.

For this reason, they are not players that the Tigers are going to give away. They don't need to move these players as part of a salary dump--they would be a relative drop in the bucket--and they aren't going to mortgage their future for one season of a slightly smaller but still very large payroll. If either of these players get traded, it will be in a package with somebody with a bigger salary and a pending replacement-in-waiting (I'm looking at you Carlos Guillen/Magglio Ordonez, or one of the Willis/Robertson/Bonderman trifecta). With MLB Trade Rumors throwing the Cubs out there as a possibility, it makes me wonder whether a Granderson+Big Salary Player swap could bring Milton Bradley and prospects to Detroit. That would alleviate the budget woes and do some system restocking, but I'm guessing that a better deal could be had elsewhere.

That being said, it would be a crushing blow if the Tigers traded Granderson for two reasons:

1. Lynn Henning would have been right, despite pulling this out of his backside months ago.
2. Curtis Granderson provides more value to the team on and off the field than any other player in Detroit. He is a beloved player that brings advertising and merchandise dollars to the team, is a community staple, nationally respected in the MLB and has the on-field skill that made him the second most valuable position player on the team in terms of wins added. I don't see how trading Granderson is anything but a huge step backward in 2010, and I'm not sure how they would recover in 2011 with no heir apparent in Centerfield.

Too hot in the hot stove. I don't like this at all.

Today's Lynn Henning is an Idiot Moment

So, this is funny. Yesterday I wrote a post called "Today's Lynn Henning is an Idiot Moment" based on a post he wrote on his blog. In it, the following gem was buried:

But for now, as Tigers fans lament Willis' troubles and Cabrera's all-too-frequent drinking incidents, the Marlins camp would love to have that trade back.

And I started to rant about how "all-too-frequent" isn't usually used to mean "two," and is a disingenuous way to insinuate that the Tigers needed to drag Cabrera off of bar stools just to get to the stadium on time. Ultimately, I deleted the post because I thought that it constituted unnecessary ranting and I just wasn't in the mood for negativity.

Then Today Happened.

We are treated to an article entitled "How the Tigers can stay in Contention" by a credible former baseball executive that understands the ins and outs of roster and payroll management. Oh wait, no. It's by Lynn Henning. Now, I will say that this is exactly the type of article that sports columnists are supposed to write, and I have no problem with that whatsoever. However, it should come as no surprise that the article touches on a familiar topic.

They will trade Curtis Granderson for two players. I cannot shake a personal belief that dealing Granderson is their only way out of heading into 2010 with zero chance to win the division. This is said with the understanding that losing your center fielder and leadoff man is not an ideal way to get better.

But I believe the Tigers will get a bullpen arm and a position player for Granderson (either a corner outfielder or a shortstop) that, coupled with some creative approaches to center field, will make them a better team in 2010. I'm probably in a group of one who has this conviction, but every time I play GM I come up with no scenario other than inducing another club to deal handsomely for Granderson. And I believe some club will do just that.

OH MY GOD SHUT UP.

I've tried to comment on this via creative license. I've tried to flatly refute it as half-baked and needless speculation. But to no avail. Henning keeps on writing it and then other media picks up on it and before you know it there is a call for a trade. It can happen. But this is getting ridiculous, no?

Henning is the only person who is legitimately calling for this to happen. HE EVEN SAYS SO:

I cannot shake a personal belief that dealing Granderson is their only way out of heading into 2010 with zero chance to win the division... I'm probably in a group of one who has this conviction

You're probably right. A team would pay handsomely for Granderson because he is an above average player with a below average contract who you surmise could be had for a bullpen pitcher and corner outfielder. That would be highway robbery.

I'm sorry, but I just fail to see any scenario in which trading Granderson for those pieces makes the team more competitive in 2010. The Tigers are hamstrung because of a $18 million to Ordonez, $13 to Guillen, $12 to Willis, $12.5 to Bonderman and $10 to Robertson. Heck, even $6.6 to Inge is more damaging than the $5.5 million that they will pay Granderson next year. I'm not saying that next year is a lost cause, but I don't see how trading one of your youngest, most productive and least expensive players helps the team in any way. Give me an actual scenario. Name some names. Sure, it will be wild speculation--but that's all this trade talk is anyway, so why not go for the gusto?

Maybe because no reasonable scenario exists. Until you find one, just stop writing. And please, please, don't make me write any more of these posts. They are getting so tiresome.

Trade Granderson Drum Still Being Beaten By One Man

Lynn Henning is not one to let things go. He has been a vocal critic of Curtis Granderson all season, going as far as to blame him for the Tigers' woos and woes. Just last month, he advocated trading the centerfielder, and expressed concern about his trade value dropping. Well, Henning is at it again:

As for the potentially explosive issue of center fielder Curtis Granderson: The Tigers need help, possibly lots of it. There are better ways to acquire necessary players than to trade your leadoff batter and center fielder, but the Tigers may have no choice if the right package is offered.

Granderson has the kind of clout (30 HRs, eight 3Bs, 23 2Bs, 20 SBs) and manageable contract that could make him, at age 28, a player capable of bringing a significant return on a trade. A blue-chip relief pitcher and middle infielder, perhaps, with maybe a replacement-level center fielder as part of a possible two-player acquisition for Detroit.

If there is one player who could be overpaid for in a trade, it's quite possibly Granderson.

Dude. Come on.

Is it even worth the effort to contradict this line of thought any more as long as Henning beats this drum? Yeah, probably. So here we go.

There could be value in the Tigers trading Granderson (!). There could be value in trading anyone, something that Henning qualifies by saying "if the right package" is offered. The problem isn't that Granderson--or anyone--could be traded for the right price, it is what Henning's absurd assessment of what the right price would be.

A blue-chip relief pitcher, a middle infielder and maybe a replacement level centerfielder. Ugh. Let's take this step by step.

1. Never, never, never trade an impact position player for a relief pitcher. It is way too risky. Just ask Brad Lidge or Eric Gagne or Francisco Cordero. In 2008 the Tigers realized that they were thin in the bullpen, so they drafted a ton of big arms that could be major-league ready on short order--Ryan Perry was the first of this group to come up. The bullpen is designed to be filled internally, and to trade any all-star talent for a relief pitcher would be shockingly dumb in 99% of cases. If it turns out that the Tigers are hot and absolutely need a closer to make a playoff run next year they will pull the trigger when the time comes.

2. Middle infielders are really valuable. So valuable, in fact, that they are notoriously difficult to pluck from other teams in trades. So, if the Tigers were to nab a middle infielder in this trade, they would likely end up with either A) a proven, but just past his prime option or B) a prospect with high upside but high risk. If A) they should just resign Polanco. Nobody is trading Elvis Andus (or equivalent) for Granderson, which means that they'll likely a good prospect with some amount of risk. The Tigers have him too--his name is Scott Sizemore and he was the Tigers Minor League Player of the Year. There doesn't seem to be enough value added here to make this deal.

3. A replacement level centerfielder. Oh, like Ryan Raburn? Next. Also, a replacment-level centerfielder quickly becomes a below-replacement level centerfielder when he starts roaming Comerica Park.

I just don't see how you could make a trade like this without explicitly conceding 2010. I'm not saying that without Granderson on the team the Tigers are hopeless. I'm just saying that trading an impact player for three solid but unspectacular players sounds silly to me. You can get these players cheap in free agency, or through lesser trades. Unless Henning starts naming names of a reasonable return for Granderson, his speculative deal--aka "fill all of the Tigers' holes at once!"--is borderline insanity. I find talk like this to be both reactionary and short-sighted. Granderson had an odd year this year, with a low batting average and a below normal line drive rate. Does that mean that he is on a precipitous decline? Or could it be an abberration and he will regress back to a 2008 statistical level mean? This is the same type of talk that led people to believe that Verlander was finished after 2008. Oops. Trading Granderson now would be a mistake, and it seems like everyone except Lynn Henning knows it.

Curtis Granderson On The Trading Block?

If you were to read this headline in today's paper, who would you guess was the author:

Curtis Granderson's Stock Might Be Slipping

If you guessed Lynn Henning, you would be correct. Now, for the non-Tigers fans among us, Lynn Henning has spent the season with a baffling fascination for the relative failure of Curtis Granderson and has pitched the possibility that Granderson will be traded this offseason time and time again.

Shut up. Lynn Henning is fast becoming to the Detroit Tigers what Michael Rosenberg has become to the University of Michigan and Rich Rodriguez.

Since it is early in the morning and I am eating breakfast, I'm not going to go into a rant and use tons of supporting evidence etc. and instead just pose this question:

Why would the Tigers trade Curtis Granderson?

Let me elaborate. He is 28 years old, known in baseball terms as "entering his prime." He has had a weird, and kind of rough season with his batting average taking the biggest hit. Well, he's also about the set career highs in walks. He has struggled against lefties, no doubt, but in that 2007 season when everybody in the world was on the Granderson bandwagon, he only hit .160 against lefties. As the Ink Stained blog pointed out last week, Ryan Howard hits just .199 against lefties. Grady Sizemore goes .216, and Carlos Pena hits .211. I'm not saying that as a point of defense, but rather that it is hard to write off a player entirely because he can't hit left-handed pitching, especially when he showed signs of improvement one year ago (.259 against LH pitching), and especially when he was anointed as the next great thing two years ago. Regression is ok, if there is improvement in the future--and there is no reason to think that Granderson can't improve.

So, apart from those factors--you know, the ones that indicate that Granderson is still a very good player with a rather lofty ceiling, we can also look at the reason players get traded in the first place. Money.

Tell me, what would you gain by trading Curtis Granderson?

I'm seeing a best case scenario in which you get some prospects, one of which hopefully ends up being Curtis Granderson. Are you with me? Curtis is making $3.5 Million this year. FanGraphs tells us that even in this odd season, with a lower than normal batting average, poor splits and elevated strikeouts, he has been worth $14.4 Million to the team. With salaries that elevate to $5.5 Million in 2010, $8.25 Million in 2011, $10 Million in 2012 and a $13 Million option in 2013, Granderson--if he continues to play as he had this year, which most can agree is below his capabilities in many respects (and Granderson's own self-admission), he will outplay the value of his contract for its duration.

Now, I can see a salary dump scenario in a few years, but the idea of trading Granderson this offseason is patently absurd. It would fit somewhere on the spectrum between malicious malpractice and franchise-destroying. It is not easy to find a good center fielder. Just ask Chad Curtis or Brian Hunter. Or Roger Cedeno, or Alex Sanchez. Or Nook Logan.

Thinking about trading Granderson at this point in his career is a fool's errand. It's akin to taking on all the risk and little of the reward from signing a long-term contract. For Henning to repeatedly bring up this idea suggests that he is either sick and tired of everyone fawning over Grandrson, or that he, like many of us, is frustrated by this year's inconsistency from a player that we all expected to get better every year. Welcome to the club, Lynn. Yes, Granderson needs to be a rock in the lineup and on more than one occasion has failed to come through. But this is baseball. It happens. Sometimes people have down years.

Just for a bit of fun.

1959 .327 BA .410 OBP .940 OPS 27 HR 94 RBI
1960 .278 BA .354 OBP .781 OPS 15 HR 68 RBI
1961 .324 BA .393 OBP .909 OPS 19 HR 82 RBI

Kaline Over The Hill, Trade for Orioles' ROY Hanson Makes Sense
Lynn Henning
28 September 1960

It has been a strange year for Tigers Right Fielder Al Kaline. After storming onto the scene in '53 and winning a batting title at the tender age of 20, it is starting to look like the 6-time All Star may be starting to see the effects of being rushed to the major leagues. With career lows in every major offensive category, you have to wonder if Kaline's potential trade value has taken a hit as the Tigers decide to cash in their chips for some highly touted prospects. Kaline has struggled all year, not hitting higher than .235 in any month until now, not counting the 9 games he played in April. While a hot August and September has boosted the once-fearsome Tiger's batting average, you can't help but wonder if the Tigers would be wise to send Kaline back to his hometown in exchange for one or more of Baltimore's prized rookie pitchers.

--snip--

Simply said, this hasn't been the season that the Tigers needed out of their veteran star. At age 25, the organization needs to ask itself if they were lucky enough to catch lightning in a bottle, or if Kaline's career peaked early and it is time for the team to sell high while they still can. With the opportunities on the trade market, it would be silly for the team not to take a look.

Geez, no wonder "in the mid-1960s Kaline grew bitter about some of the negative press he was receiving in Detroit, where they felt he should be doing more to bring a title to the town. He even talked openly of being traded." Good to see that Henning lives up to the proud tradition of the Detroit media criticizing its local stars (don't get me started on their poor treatment and later, silence, on how unbelievable Miguel Cabrera has been in Detroit so far. This guy is a STAR and he's gets less press than Tony Clark.)

Granderson is no Al Kaline (Kaline was only 25 in 1960 and a 7 year MLB Veteran!), but sometimes people have down years. It doesn't make any sense to make silly moves because of one year, and there is no doubt in my mind that everyone in the Tigers organization is aware of that. Time to get up to speed, Mr. Henning.

Aside

With all of the bitching that teams and fans do about the World Baseball Classic, is it possible that Granderson's inclusion in that tournament stunted his preparation for the year and has kept him from improving? He has stated that he has felt uncomfortable all year, and (HR not withstanding) has shown it in his at-bats. Is it unreasonable to claim that by going into competitive game mode so early in the season and missing out on spring training at-bats and instruction, that his ability to get into a groove was hampered? I'm not sure, and it is hard to say that given that he has had a full season to improve, but I'm guessing that it is hard to make adjustments on the fly (aka during the season) when you're still a young player and facing new pitching every night and focusing so much on winning games. Just a thought.

Update
The cutoff man blog on milve.com is on the case as well. Granderson trade talk is way premature at best, foolish nonsense at worst. Nice to see that I'm not alone in this.