Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaack

On a cold, snowy Thursday, what's the best news you could ask for?

Tigers signed another strong bat for their lineup.

And it was Magglio Ordonez

And it was only for one year.

Given the craziness that was the Jason Werth signing, and the off-season in general, it certainly wasn't supposed to happen this way. But it did, and the Tigers have solidified their lineup for 2011, haven't damaged their prospects in the mid- or long-term and bring back a fan favorite, who allegedly turned down 2-year deals elsewhere out of loyalty to Mike Ilitch and the Tigers.

Welcome back Maggs, we're thrilled to have you.

The card above, from 2009 Allen & Ginter, is one of the cheap Tigers relics I picked up at last year's National, which speaking of good news on a winter's day, is coming back to Baltimore in 2012.

Stop Comparing the Werth Deal to Pudge and Maggs

So Jayson Werth and his superfluous "y" just signed a 7-year $126 Million contract with the Washington Nationals. When I found out about it yesterday I was floored. Apparently, some GM's were floored too:

The Werth contract is stunningly huge. An American League general manager nearly fell over when I told him the terms.

So...yeah. My first reaction was "oh thank God the Tigers didn't offer 7 years." Because when you think about it, that's the crazy part. 7 years at $18M per year, for a 31-year old late-bloomer who has had four very good seasons in a hitter's ballpark in a lineup surrounded by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley (in addition to Jim Thome, Raul Ibanez and Jimmy Rollins, at times).

According to MLB Trade Rumors, Keith Law takes on the "Losing Teams Need to Overpay" argument (ESPN Insider), a sentiment that has been reflected far and wide, from half the people in my office to Scott Boras himself:

Agent Scott Boras says this is like the Tigers signing Pudge Rodriguez seven years ago -- when they were coming off 119 losses, and he was coming off a World Series win -- or Magglio Ordonez six years ago. Nice comparison, especially since the Tigers ended up in the 2006 World Series in large part because of those two deals.

You see? This is a franchise saver! Just like the Tigers did before they went to the World Series! Spend money to make money!

Except that they're not the same. Not at all.

Exhibit A: A perennial All-Star at a premium position fresh off a World Series championship is a free agent. He's already a lock for the Hall of Fame. However, he is also coming off of a back injury that has scared off every team under the sun. This is Pudge Rodriguez. Teams were scared about his longevity and durability and were offering 1 and 2 year deals, just like the Marlins had the year before.

The Tigers stepped in an offered a 4-year/$40M contract--or at least twice as much as anyone else was willing to pay in either dollars, years or both.

Except it wasn't so cut and dried. Pudge's contract has a series of elaborate back-out clauses and buy-out provisions that protected the Tigers in case of recurring injury--the very reason that teams were afraid to go after Pudge. In the end, only $20M was guaranteed, with all the downside protection in the world.

So yeah, the Tigers overpaid, but this was hardly a blank check and had the ability to right a franchise without having the possibility of crippling it. Also, this was a Tigers team with far less talent coming off a far worse season (119 losses) with far less hope than the Nationals in 2010.

Exhibit B: Perhaps the more apt comparison, Magglio Ordonez signed a deal worth as much as 7-years and $105 Million in 2005. Again, this was a case of the Tigers paying far above market price for Maggs, something that they had to do to get talent to come to Detroit to play for a floundering franchise.

But again, things aren't all that they seem. Ordonez, like Pudge, was coming off of an injury that scared other teams away from offering any long-term contracts. Like Pudge, Magglio's contract had protections--the contract could be voided--if his knee injury came back and put him on the disabled list.

Sorry Maggs, such is the price of experimental European treatment.

If you boil it down, the Tigers had a $12M exposure to Magglio's knee injury, which, if it was healed, would lead to a 5-year, $70M contract with two vesting option years.

This was an overpayment--Maggs was not worth $18M last year, and won't be worth $15M next year, just as he wasn't in 2009--but the options protected the Tigers from having to issue the 2011 contract at $15M and by and large he has been worth the value of the contract.

The common thread between the two contracts is the same: in both cases premier players were coming of major injuries that added significant uncertainty to whether they would be able to return to form. Overpayment amounted to offering what Pudge and Maggs would have commanded on the open market, if their injuries were not an issue. Maybe and extra year here or an extra million there, but the Tigers were willing to take the risk (while creating contracts that mitigated risk) that no other teams were willing to take.

Such is not the case with Jayson Werth. He's coming off three full, healthy seasons, in which he has been tremendously productive. He was one of the premier free agents on the market, and was expected to land a big, multi-year contract. In other words, there was no uncertainty about Jayson Werth.

And that is why this comparison needs to die. The Nationals massively overpaid the rest of the market with 7 guaranteed years. No options, no back-out clauses no little things that could prevent this deal from being a Vernon Wells/Barry Zito style albatross. And that's fine--the Nationals can overpay for whoever they want and I won't really care. But to say that this is what the Tigers did with Pudge Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez is a fallacy. The Tigers took a chance when nobody else was willing to. The Nationals decided to just open up the bank and look the other way.

Minus Maggs

The weekend brought with it some sour news. From a practical standpoint it is, in reality, inconsequential, but emotionally there was some weight here. Take it away Dr. Leyland:

"We are all at the mercy on how it is healing," Leyland said. "This year is pretty much done for him, unfortunately for him and unfortunately for us. I think that is pretty much it for him. I think. But I said Brandon Inge would be out six weeks and he came back."

Leyland said the crack was more severe than thought and is at a vertical angle rather than horizontal.

Leyland, of course, doesn't know why a vertically angled crack is more difficult to heal than a horizontal crack. It is not more severe than he thought, it was more severe than the doctors thought. It was more severe than he was told. I'm going to go ahead and blame the writer on this one, instead of continuing to picture Leyland holding up a set of X-rays against the light, smoke billowing around the florescent lighting of the windowless room. "Damn." He grumbles, taking exhaling slowly and the smoke shrouds his face. "This is worse than I thought."

Funny as that may be.

Anyway, that's from the Detroit News. Bless You Boys follows up with a candidate for understatement of the year:

It would be quite sad if the Tiger who gave us the best highlight in two decades has officially played his last game for the D.

"Quite Sad?" I have to believe that it would be more tragic than that. "Major Disappointment" is more appropriate than "quite sad" and even "tragic" almost rings true without being hyperbolic. Almost.

I think that it is easy to forget how important Maggs has been to this club, and its easy to see why. When he arrived in 2005 he wasn't the savior. That was Pudge, who braved (and was handsomely rewarded) to join the Tigers after the 2003 season. Ordonez was a sheep. An also-ran. An add-on.

2005 Topps Prestige Magglio Ordonez

The Tigers followed the pattern that they set forth with Pudge. At the time, Maggs was damaged goods, coming off experimental European knee surgery, there were serious doubts whether he'd be able to play again, much less hit at a professional level.

And in fact, 2005 was a struggle for Magglio. He strained his abdomen at the start of the season, and required hernia surgery, keeping him out until July. He came back strong upon his return, but with no fewer question marks than he had coming into the season.

By the start of 2006, he was just another short-haired,

2006 Topps Finest Magglio Ordonez

Affable,

2006 Topps Co-Signers Magglio Ordonez

"Professional Hitter" on a team, that seemed full of them. His 24 home run, 104 RBI season helped drive the Tigers to a winning record for the first time in 13 years, and the playoffs for the first time in 19 years.

And it was Magglio, who with one swing of the bat, became an icon.

2006 Topps Turkey Red Magglio Ordonez

To this day, I'm bothered that a baseball card was never made that depicted Magglio Ordonez hitting a walk-off home run to send the Tigers to the World Series for the first time in 22 years. It was the defining moment of a season, and of a generation--mine--that had never really seen what successful Tigers baseball was.

---
Flash forward to 2007--Ordonez, won the batting title by hitting .363. He had 54 doubles. 139 RBI! And, deservingly, he was given his second consecutive All-Star spot, and finished 2nd in the MVP voting that year. It was his peak as a Tiger, no doubt. And with long locks now flowing, his Gideon-like status elevated him to a new level, to shiny baseball cards that only the true stars get:

2008 SPx Magglio Ordonez

And he lived up to that status in 2008, with another .300+ year, and another 100+ RBIs. Did you know that he was the first Tiger to have three consecutive 100 RBI seasons since Cecil Fielder did so from 1991-1994? Did you?


But the wheels fell off in 2009.

2009 UD Spectrum Magglio Ordonez

His numbers took a dive, along with his bat speed and concentration. It was later revealed that his wife had been battling rather serious cancer, he was booed by his fellow Venezuelans at the WBC for his political views. He was benched by Leyland for poor performance. Then unbenched. The benched and unbenched again. Ultimately, he got so hot in the second half of the season that he helped carry the team into game 163, and saw his big, fat contract option for 2010 vest. There were groans. Overpaid and over-the-hill.

Yet here we are in the exact opposite position one year later, and its seems that everybody has finally realized what we should have seen all along. The Tigers are much, much worse without Magglio Ordonez. Sure, he's not a $15M player any more, and in a sense, his injury spared the Tigers from having to overpay for him in 2011. But just look what his loss has meant this season. The team went into freefall, Miguel Cabrera's torrid place slowed remarkably, and an already tenuous lineup crumbled. Overpaid or not Ordonez was the keystone, and I'm not sure you can put a price on that.

---
Has Magglio Ordonez played his last game as a Tiger? That's the speculation. But I tend to agree with Kurt from BYB that the Tigers are going to try and bring him back. One option is to pick up his $15M option for 2011. That seems a bit silly, and like punching a gift horse in the mouth. But you have to believe that the Tigers realize exactly how valuable Maggs is to the franchise. Not has been--this would be no charity signing--but still is to the team.

You can make the same argument for Brandon Inge, or even Johnny Damon, both of whom are in the throws of trade speculation. And when you think about it, you realize that there is really no reason that the Tigers shouldn't bring any one of them back. There is no heir apparent, no rising star that they're holding back. The only option would be to replace in free agency, which is effectively what the Tigers could do with Ordonez. Decline the option and re-sign him at a fair rate.

Would he go for it? I'm not sure. Would the Tigers offer? I don't know. But it would be the right thing to do, because it would be the best thing for the team. Challenge time: who has been the best player on the Tigers since their 2003 season? Miguel Cabrera comes to mind, because he is the most talented and has had incredible individual season. But Ordonez's numbers are better over his Tigers career. He has carried this team, more than anybody else in that span. Without Ordonez, the Tigers don't make the playoffs. They don't content year-in and year-out. Dollars over donuts says they don't have Miguel Cabrera right now. That trade would never have been made.

So think about the sad reality that Magglio Ordonez may have played his last game as a Detroit Tiger, and you may wonder, as I do, how in the hell this team is going to get along without him.

Game, Set, Match

This is what I get for going out for an evening. I passively followed the Tigers score, passively retweeted that Magglio had hurt his ankle ("Oh Hell..."), passively checked in to see the Tigers lose 3-2. It wasn't until we got to our last stop of the night that I got filled in on the details courtesy of a bar TV showing the day's highlights.

Oh hell.

I wanted so badly for Rick Porcello to pitch a good game leading to a Tigers win. Then I could have shown off this and gone to bed with a smile on my face.

2010 Allen & Ginter #AGA-RP Rick Porcello

Was that too much to ask? Was I being greedy, enjoying this Tigers mini-win streak? Looking forward to heading down to Camden Yards this afternoon to root as hard as I could against the rival Twins, all because I know every little bit counts in a season that could go down to the wire again?

But no. On the one night in I don't know how long that I go out for the evening, Detroit's baseball world comes crashing down. Perhaps I should consider myself lucky, as someone who was spared the real-time pain and diagnostic uncertainty and apprehension. On the other hand, when I got all of the information it hit me harder than a fastball to the wrist (Too soon?)

Finished
It would take the miracle of miracles for the Tigers to recover from this. Maggs has a fractured ankle and is out 6-8 weeks. Guillen strained a calf and hit the DL too. Their replacements are Jeff Larish and Will Rhymes. Replacement level indeed. I've got to believe that more roster changes are coming, but with today's freaking doubleheader the Tigers are so short on players that they need more infielders more than they need more outfielders. They can come up with more permanent solutions later. That's the nature of the beast.

In the last week, the Tigers have seen three of their starters hit the DL, two for an extended period of time. If, somehow, they are able to continue to contend for the AL Central, it would be a story worthy of hollywood. I mean, it can't happen. Ugh. I'm not saying it can't happen, but you know what I mean. It can't. ARGH.

So I'm just going to say what we're all thinking. The Tigers are finished. Oh hell.

From Here On Out
So what are they going to do about it? First of all, for a team that already had some holes to fill to stay in it, they now of two more. Another infielder is needed--the Tigers are down to having Miguel Cabrera as their ONLY remaining Opening Day starter in the infield. (No, Scott Sizemore's return doesn't count, jerks). The outfield hole is less glaring--there are some appealing minor league options, among which Jeff Larish is not really one--but the impact is even greater considering the huge drop-off expected between Magglio's stellar 2010 play and Minor League Player X's foray into the major leagues.

Dave Dombrowski must feel like Mr. Burns:

"Unless, of course, my nine all-stars fall victim to nine separate misfortunes and are unable to play tomorrow. But that will never happen. Three misfortunes, that's possible. Seven misfortunates, there's an outside chance. But nine misfortunes? I'd like to see that!"

The Tigers didn't have nine All stars to begin with. They had four: Inge, Ordonez, Guillen and Cabrera (ok five, Damon). So unless Miguel Cabrera goes out and hits 9 home runs today, the Tigers are going to lose to Shelbyville, if you catch my drift. Does Jeff Larish have a hand-hewn Wonderbat we don't know about?

In the current state of things, the Tigers are not contenders and should treat their situation as such. That means no Haren, who would have required giving up Andy Oliver AND Justin Jurner. No Lilly, no Bautista or Lowell or whoever. There's not enough to make up for what the Tigers need, and the cost is way too high.
(interesting Update: Dombrowski says no top prospects for "two month rentals", but are also interested in Mike Lowell?)

Which makes me wonder, are the Tigers willing to make the next, very painful, step that signifies the end of their contending ways in 2010? They need to trade Johnny Damon.

We all know it. We also know that it will further decimate a team that has no good options for replacement. We know that it will further hang Miguel Cabrera out to dry as he futilely tries to go after the Triple Crown minus Ordonez in front of him. But come on, Damon is signed to a one-year contract and is having a good season as a potential impact player for a team looking to make a push. He can DH or play outfield. If the Tigers can get any value in return then they should do it.

I also tweeted that they should consider trading Bonderman as well. Same scenario--contract year, potential impact player--but he is less reliable than Damon and would command less in a trade. It may also really alienate us poor fans who are hanging on by a thread. It's worth thinking about though. They can always wink, wink, nod, nod to Bondo that they want to resign him in free agency at the end of the season. Would that be so bad?

Make no mistake. The Tigers are sellers. They should sell while they can.

The not-so-distant future
More important in all of this is what happens in the future. With Ordonez out 6-8 weeks, he will not get enough plate appearances for his Option to automatically vest. Listen, I like Ordonez. I named my cat after him. And he has played excellent baseball this year and I was OK with the prospect of him coming back next year for a swan song, even if his stats were diminished slightly. But he's not worth $15 in 2011. Even if you want him on your team more than anybody in the world, he's not, and everybody knows it.

With that said, the Tigers now have an extra $15M to spend. In fact, add it all up and the Tigers will have more than $60M coming off the books next year. What they will need to do is replace, either internally or via free agency, Ordonez, Bonderman and Inge, not to mention solidify the other holes that haunt the team.

Internal options seem somewhat sparse. At least, too uncertain to rely on three more rookies to make an impact next year. Honestly, I'd like to see all three of those players retained on short term deals, but at something like 50% of their current salary, which would approach more of a fair market value. Damon's a one and done, which is why I'd like to see the Tigers get a little bit of return on him.

Beyond that, with cash in hand I think they need to make a free agency splash. To me, Ted Lilly has the opportunity to be a Kenny Rogers-type veteran for the team, and could be a solid lefty to fill out a rotation that is very uncertain in spots #4 and 5. Honestly, with a relative abundance of minor league outfielders, those positions are not as important, but I've been saying for two years that I'd love to see Carl Crawford in the Old English D. The Tigers would have the money to make that happen. There's not much of a SS crop--which is really the Tigers' biggest need--beyond Jose Reyes, and you wonder whether he's worth the price given his injury history.

I guess what I'm saying is this: The Tigers are toast this year. They have big, gaping holes next year. But with Ordonez's unfortunate break, they have a little more financial flexibility to plug them, and that, sadly, is a good thing. Ship off Damon for a decent prospect or two--can I get some bullpen help?--and we might have something.

In the meantime
We are stuck with things like Today's lineup:

1. Austin Jackson, CF
2. Ramon Santiago, 2B
3. Ryan Raburn, LF
4. Miguel Cabrera, 1B
5. Brennan Boesch, RF
6. Scott Sizemore, 3B
7. Jeff Larish, DH
8. Gerald Laird, C
9. Danny Worth, SS

That's five rookies, a Superstar, two career bench players and someone still hitting below the mendoza line. And there's a doubleheader today.

Oh hell.

USA! USA!

Yes, I know that these are all "commemorative 4th of July edition" cards, but this is a National Holiday you know and these just came out. Also, I can't believe how many of them there are. As far as I can tell, this is all of the Tigers in the set, but you never know what else might pop up.

Two Grand

2009 SP Authentic #30 Magglio Ordonez

Remember that time when Magglio Ordonez got his 2,000th Career hit?

That was awesome.


Congrats to Magglio--or as he is colorfully known on the Bless You Boys message boards, "Singlio", given his relative power outage last year--on reaching that milestone in today's game. Sometimes it's easy to forget that he has been a really, really good baseball player for quite some time.

Let's Make It Two!

The magic number is down to two. Let's recap the night's key moments, shall we?

The Tigers, down 2-0 after the top of the first, can't afford to let this game slip away. With two men on in the 2nd:

2009 Upper Deck#645 Brandon Inge

Double. Tie ball game. Ramon Santiago follows it up with a 2 RBI single to put the Tigers in the lead. But Ramon wasn't finished there. He decides to become Mr. Sparkplug in the 5th.

2009 Upper Deck #638 Ramon Santiago

A huge bunt for a base hit, that required that he slide into first base set the stage. A hit and run with Polanco worked flawlessly as nobody covered the steal and Polanco singled right up the middle. A Clete Thomas walk set the stage for Miguel Cabrera. With the light of a thousand suns, our savior...

2009 Upper Deck #SQ-19 Miguel Cabrera Starquest

popped up on the first pitch. 2 outs, and what was shaping up to look like a patented Detroit Tigers squandered opportunity. Oh, but hey, remember this guy?

2009 Upper Deck #643 Magglio Ordonez

Two out, bases clearing double. 7-2 Tigers.

Scoreless relief pitching for the last four preserved the lead. The Tigers lead the Central by 3 with 4 to play. They could clinch tomorrow against the Twins. Or by winning any two of their last four. Or if Zach Greinke beats the Twins on Saturday and the Tigers pull one out anywhere. What a difference a day makes, as there appear to be glimmers of light and the end of the tunnel.