Happy Trails: Dontrelle Willis

So, um yeah. Apparently I can unintentionally predict the future. On Friday, I had a brief--some might say tounge-in-cheek, others, distasteful--tribute to actor Gary Coleman. The premise was simple: show a card that pretty much only says "Willis" as in "What'choo Talkin 'Bout Willis?" and for that card to be a mini card, as commentary on Coleman's diminutive stature.

The only text in the post was RIP.

In what now appears to be grim, if not overdramatic, foreshadowing, Dontrelle Willis was designated for assignment by the Tigers barely more than 24 hours later.

2009 Topps: Team Factory Set #DET8 Dontrelle Willis

Willis' time in Detroit was troublesome from start to finish. I won't go into the statistical details, but suffice to say that it was so bad as to convince my wife's boss that the Tigers trading for Dontrelle Willis will go down as the worst trade in Tigers history. The problem was the trade was perfectly fine, it was that 3-year, $29M contract extension given before a seemingly declining Willis had yet to throw a pitch in the Old English D.

Dombrowski fail, I'm afraid.

Even with a comeback this season--if pitching at a serviceable, if below average level can be called a comeback, the writing was on the wall. After his underwhelming start on Friday, Tiger fans with the power of the "publish" button were on it:

Clearly, when the Tigers decide to get Max Scherzer back in the rotation -- that can't come soon enough -- Willis must be removed from it.

I feel like I've written this post before. Well, the Willis half of it, anyway.

But it needs to be said again and again and again because it happens again and again and again. The Tigers give veterans far too many chances to repeatedly fail even if better options are out there. It cost them last year when they came up a game short. It'll cost them again.

Right now, the people who are sick and tired of Adam Everett and Brandon Inge are nodding their heads in furious agreement.

If the goal this year was to spend a lot of money -- they've got that part down -- and compete to win the division, it's a successful goal. If the goal was actually to win the division, the management of the club has to stop playing veterans who have a track record of failure.

That was Bless You Boys' Friday Post-Game

BigAl, under the Bless You Boys' banner, then put up a whole post about why Willis needs to go when Scherzer gets the call.

Yanking the D-Train before he can do any more damage to the Tigers' playoff chances is the logical thing to do. But when was the last time the Tigers did something logical when it comes to monster contracts? Just look back to the Tigers paying the Marlins $9.6 million to take Nate Robertson off their hands. I'm still scratching my head over the move.

Check out the stat line on Robertson's last start. Willis has Nate looking like the next coming of Cy Young...or at least Milt Wilcox.

So, you wanted a servicable lefty... BigAl continues:

Keeping a walk-happy, big inning waiting to happen, über-expensive failed starter/middle relief pitcher/mop up man on the 25 man roster makes no sense. As no general manager in their right mind would trade even a bag of used stirrups for Willis (and his contract), it means he has to be released.

But Mike Ilitch would have to eat the remainder of what's left of the $12 million still owed to Willis. It's an immense amount of money, enough to make the Tigers' owner gag at the thought. The idea of an 80 year old owner choking to death on $100 bills isn't exactly pleasant...which is why Willis being removed from the rotation may not in the cards.

This was the general consensus. Willis needs to go, but he probably won't because of financial constraints and he'll ultimately stick around too long and when push comes to shove the Tigers are going to be all the worse for it. Except that it seems like we all overestimated the power of inertia in the Tigers front office. Last night they cut the cord.

From the Detroit Tigers Weblog

So my question is, what exactly were the Tigers hoping for out of Willis this season? Dombrowski’s comments on the matter are rather gray, and I doubt we’re getting the whole story. Given his entire career arc, I think Willis is pitching as well as could have reasonably been expected.

--snip--

Here’s where I make a logical leap. I hope you can join me because it may be encouraging. Given the Willis DFA, the Sizemore and Scherzer demotions, and the commitment to Brennan Boesch is it out of line to think that the organization is looking to be more swift in swapping out underperformers and maximizing talent on the 25 man roster?

And I think billfer is right on the nose. The Tigers know that they have zero margin of error to field a competitive team this year. Given how last year wrapped up, it is apparent to everyone all the way up through ownership that no games can be conceded in the interest of experimentation. The Willis experiment was a failed one. There was no progress--he seems to have reached his ceiling what was, bluntly, too unpredictable to keep in the rotation.

That's not to say that he couldn't have battled all season and won some games, and even pitched relatively well. He could have. But he also could have imploded any minute. It was like carrying around some dynamite from that ship in Lost and thinking "This Dynamite will save us! We can use it to blow up the...BOOM" How'd that plan work out, former person who is now pink dust? I'll take my chances with the smoke monster, thanks.

The important thing to note here is that it appears as though Dombrowski and Ilitch get it. They understand the concept of "sunk costs" and of "replacement level players" and have seemingly thrown some of the slow-moving decision making processes that have plagued this team for a few years out the window.

There is no room for error. This team is not that good, but are better now without Willis than they were with him. The question is, is that enough?

Robertson Gone: Tigers Choose One Basket for All Their Eggs

Oh boy.

So I was eating lunch with some co-workers when the headline caught me: Nate Robertson was traded to Florida for LHP Jay Voss and Cash. As the bottom line ticked away this factoid appeared:

Detroit 6 Baltimore 5 5th Inning. Willis: 4.1 IP, 7H 5ER 4BB 3K

Oh boy.

2009 DAV Detroit Tigers Nate Robertson

I always liked Nate Robertson. Back in 2006 he was a tough-luck, hard working, awesome facial-haired pitcher. He was my wife's "Tiger" in the "Who's Your Tiger" campaign. He started gum time. He was the only Tiger who actually bought a house in Michigan and lived there year round. Ironically, today's Detroit Free Press announced that Brandon Inge will now be living in Michigan full time.

In recent years, pitcher Nate Robertson has been the only Tiger to live in Michigan year-round. He resides in Canton.

No more.

Somewhere along the line, the wheels fell off. Robertson went from being a serviceable major league starter to a fringe major leaguer in a matter of months. As he wasted away as a generally ineffective bullpen lefty last season, it turned out that he was suffering from any series of maladies, including bone chips and a groin issue.

Flash forward to this spring. Bone chips removed and Groin healed, Robertson, in his 19-odd innings of Spring Work outpitched, by a not insignificant margin, the other two main contenders for the open spots in the Tigers rotation. With Robertson, Willis and Bonderman all proud owners of $10 Million+ contracts, it was widely believed that 1) someone would get traded or 2) someone would fill up a bullpen slot.

What is interesting is that the pitcher that ultimately did get traded was the one most "coveted" (as much as any one of these pitchers can be coveted) by other teams for precisely the reason that you wouldn't want to trade him: he looked the best.

2009 Allen & Ginter #AGR-DW Dontrelle Willis Relic

There is a concept in economics known as sunk costs. They apply to things that will need to be paid for no matter what, and it the general theory is that the sunk cost shouldn't influence strategic decisions because they are fixed either way. The Tigers are not foreign to this concept. Last year, they cut Gary Sheffield and his multi-million dollar contract for one reason: they thought that they were better without him. He was getting paid no matter what, so the question was whether they were better off with Sheffield and his contract alone, or with Sheffield's Contract and a different player and his contract. They chose the latter.

This season, monetarily, Bonderman, Robertson and Willis all had similar sunk costs, and presumably, their contracts shouldn't have factored into any decision. However, you begin to wonder whether there is some ego or emotional factor that swayed Dombrowski to stick with Willis. Perhaps a glimmer of hope that his signing wouldn't turn out to be a total failure?

In other words, blatant disregard for Willis as a sunk cost.

Rob Neyer parses this by assuming that the Tigers are not motivated by ego or hubris or what have you in his brief update on the trade:

Early rumors are that the Tigers are paying almost all of Robertson's $10 million salary this season. Considering Voss's presumed future, that means Dave Dombrowski is essentially betting that Dontrelle Willis will be better than Robertson this season. (emphasis mine)

Assuming that Dombrowski is consistent in his application of economic theory, and recognizes sunk costs for what they are, this trade says one thing: We think that Dontrelle Willis will be better than Nate Robertson.

Whether that position has any merit remains to be seen. The brief flashes of Willisian brilliance this spring have been encouraging, but really no different than say, 6.1 innings of excellence for example. When I see a walk rate that is as high as ever, and wild pitches and all of the inconsistency that has plagued Dontrelle Willis over the last two years, I have a hard time of saying that 20-odd innings of good-not-great performance is the type of encouraging sample size that I like to see.

But this is the basket in which the Tigers have placed their eggs (two baskets really, as Bonderman--who arguably pitched the worst of the three this spring--is a huge risk too) by making the trade.

Now, I'm not saying that it is a bad trade. But when I see a player who loved Michigan, was pitching well and could have served as a lefty in the bullpen (move over, Brad Thomas) get shipped out for a low-level prospect with limited upside and the Tigers are playing the bulk of his salary, I start to question whether it was something that needed to be done. When this is done alongside the human question marks that are Willis and Bonderman, you need to wonder whether Robertson isn't more valuable as insurance in the Tigers organization than he would be to any other team.

But hey, the eggs are where they are. Willis (and Bonderman) are in. Robertson is out. I'm not calling myself a pessimist, but let's just say this: I hope Eddie Bonine keeps himself stretched out.

*it is worth noting that I probably would have felt this way no matter which of the three players were traded, and clearly Robertson was the only player that had any trade value whatsoever. It is more a question of depth. With the salaries all sunk costs it seems like the trade doesn't net enough for the team to sacrifice the depth of another starter option. Through a combination of random chance and likelihood of failure, it seems to me like the Tigers would want as many viable starters as they can get, but that's why Dombrowski gets paid the big bucks, I guess.